The question
ELFBAR, one of the world's largest providers of alternative nicotine products, wanted a robust answer for Germany: what health and economic effect would it have if smokers switched to less harmful products?
A question where every number gets politically scrutinised. Gut feeling doesn't survive the first follow-up question. So we set the study up through IWCI, with scientific quality assurance by IU International University.
The approach
A socio-economic microsimulation with 200,000 synthetic persons, modelled on German demographics, smoking prevalence, disease risks and care costs. Time frame 2026 to 2040, three scenarios.
- Expert interviews from pharmacology, addiction research and statutory health insurance
- International benchmarks from the UK, Sweden and New Zealand
- Sensitivity analysis across all key assumptions
- Scientific quality assurance by Prof. Dr. Florian Hummel (IU)
The result
Only direct care costs are counted: hospital, treatment, care. Wider economic costs such as lost working time are not included.
Even a moderate scenario works: if ten percent of smokers switch each year over three years, tobacco related illness falls by eight to ten percent. Direct health costs drop by up to three billion euros a year.
The harm comes from combustion. Not from nicotine.
What follows
Harm reduction doesn't replace prevention or quitting. It complements both. The study recommends risk proportionate regulation that distinguishes combustible products from non-combustible alternatives, with consistent youth protection. The UK, Sweden and Japan show it works.
Impact
First presented at a closed policy roundtable in Berlin, co-hosted with IU International University, to decision makers from politics, health insurance and science. Report in German and English, now a reference study in Europe.
Why I do studies like this
Decision makers don't need opinions. They need numbers that survive scrutiny. That's the standard for every study run through IWCI: clean maths, open assumptions, a clear message.
Transparency is part of it: the client was HG Innovation Limited, owner of the ELFBAR brand. Study lead Dominic Multerer (IWCI), scientific quality assurance Prof. Dr. Florian Hummel (IU), model and analysis Dr. Bernhard Schropp.
Read the study (PDF) Publication by ELFBAR Case at IWCI
FAQ
Who commissioned the study?
HG Innovation Limited, owner of the ELFBAR brand. It was conducted by IWCI with scientific assurance by IU International University.
Which costs are included?
Only direct care costs such as hospital, treatment and care, for 2026 to 2040.
Does IWCI do such studies for other industries?
Yes. Market, business case or health economics, always with open methodology and quality assurance.